Turkey is the first largest apricot producer in the world. In 2016, Turkey was responsible for 9,21% of world apricot production with 730 thousand tons. Turkey also generated 11,31% of world apricot exports in 2016. The main aim of this research was to forecast apricot production of Turkey for the period of 2017-2022. The data of this study was obtained from the database of the Food and Agriculture Organization and the time series covered the period of 1961-2016. Box-Jenkins Model was used to forecast apricot production. In the study, it was determined that the time series were not stationary and the series became stationary after the first difference was taken. Moving Average Model ARIMA (2, 1, 1) was determined as the most appropriate model for the stationary data type. The research results show that apricot production quantities of Turkey in 2017 was forecasted as minimum 383.206 tons, maximum 920.409 tons and, average 651.808 tons. However, Turkey’s the apricot production amount in 2022 was forecasted as minimum 271.734 tons, maximum 1.193.113 tones and average 732.423 tons. Considering the increase in demand, it is thought that apricot production will not be sufficient for the country. To protect the current leading position of the country, it is recommended that the government should give enough support to increase apricot production in Turkey.

Turkey is one of main producers and exporter countries of chestnut in the world. It is essential to assess scientifically the accurate future production and export potentials of chestnut on the basis of past trends. This study focuses on forecasting the chestnut production and export of Turkey up to the year 2021 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The time series data for the chestnut production and export of Turkey were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Annual data for the period of 1961-2016 was used for the study. The study revealed that the best models for forecasting the chestnut production and export were ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and ARIMA (1, 2, 1), respectively. The ARIMA model showed that while the chestnut production of Turkey in 2021 would be 64.183 tonnes with lower limit of 38.946 tonnes and upper limit of 89420 tonnes. However, Turkey’s chestnut export in 2021 would be 7.962 tonnes with lower limit of 563 tonnes and upper limit of 15362 tonnes. The study concluded that Turkey’s chestnut production and export will increase in the forecasted years. The stakeholders of chestnut sector should take account these projections in their production and marketing decision.